Improving the accuracy of climate model projections with emergent constraints

The concept of emergent constraints aims to find relationships between intermodel variations of some aspect of the recent observable climate and the uncertainties of particular future climate predictions. The idea is that the observations would then inform the least biased models and, by inference, the more likely climate change projections. The cover image is a graphical representation of this concept that questions which projections of the future climate simulated by Earth system models are more credible. Credit: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

The increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has warmed the Earth since the beginning of the industrial era. Climate models try to project how much this warming trend will continue, but they differ in their global-mean temperature response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. This is called climate sensitivity, according to Dr. Florent Brient, a…

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