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A weather forecast may not allow time to make decisions that minimize the economic impacts of an extreme event, while a seasonal forecast is not precise enough to predict it. Thus, a spring frost—an event that can affect a small area and that can occur in a very short time—can lead to significant economic damages for the agribusiness players.

Predicting a cold spell a few weeks in advance can allow sector players to optimize their economic choices, changing the purchase times of raw materials in the case of a buyer or adopting adaptation strategies in the case of a farm.
The paper “Multi-model subseasonal forecasts of spring cold spells: potential value for the hazelnut agribusiness,” just released in the journal Weather and Forecasting, is the result of a research on the topic led by CMCC Foundation.
“Our case study focuses on the production…

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